Ebb Ocean Club: who is winning paid social now (2026-11-05)

Research only. No copy written, nothing spent, published or committed. Every number below is an AD COUNT or an ENGAGEMENT count (likes + comments + shares recorded by AdSpy); none of it is spend or sales. Engagement favours old ads and video, so read days beside it. "Live" means AdSpy saw the ad between 2026-10-06 and 2026-11-05. "Proven" = 100+ engagement AND (30+ days between AdSpy's first and last sighting OR the same first line on 2+ ads in the brand's pull, which is the relaunch count).

Baselines: the 2026-10-06 brand table in ../competitors/COMPETITORS.md (all-time AdSpy pulls plus Ad Library display counts) and the 2026-10-07 live pulls in ../competitors/adspy/winners-20261007/now-*.json, which used the identical query (--domain <d> --seen-days 30 --sort likes --n 40). The delta columns compare like with like against 10-07.

1. Ebb's own ads

Conditions: [OBSERVED, market] Meta Ad Library, US, all statuses, destination ebboceanclub.com, pulled 2026-11-05; ad counts, not spend or results; one advertiser.

Ebb is live. Meta Ad Library, US, all statuses, destination ebboceanclub.com: the library displays about 130 results; 120 rows were pulled (raw/adlib/ebb_domain_all.jsonl). The exact-phrase query "Ebb Ocean Club" returns the same 120 ids, and --country ALL also shows about 130 (ebb_domain_ALL_all.jsonl), so the account runs US only.

• Page: Ebb Ocean Club, page id 1373633845830377 (https://www.facebook.com/1373633845830377). All 120 pulled ads are active; placements Facebook, Instagram, Audience Network, WhatsApp, Threads.
• Formats: 94 image, 24 video, 2 DCO; 76 collation groups, 96 distinct images, 12 distinct videos.
• Start dates: first ads 2026-10-30, the bulk 2026-10-31, videos added 2026-11-04. Oldest active ad is 6 days old, so no Ebb ad meets the 30-day proof bar yet.
• Two hooks only: the barrier body ("You take care of your skin barrier. Your hair has one too.") on 105 ads, and the Sephora Savings Event body on 15. Headlines: "Ebb at the Sephora Savings Event, Ends 11/9" (105), "Up to 20% Off Ebb at Sephora" (14). Every ad sells Instant Slip + Shine "exclusively at Sephora".
• Landers: every ad goes to https://ebboceanclub.com/pages/about?view=ebb-sephora-41 (60) or ?view=ebb-sephora-42 (60), an even A/B split. These are the Sephora bridge templates built in offers/ebbo-ocean-club/builds/sephora-skeletons/ (manifests _kit/shopify/ebb-sephora-41/42.manifest.json); the barrier body matches website-revamp/build/maps/hq-ab-barrier.map.json.
• Video ad ids (Ad Library): 1019074423853193, 1095645426799120, 1117263040893113, 1121625227461009, 1138243552247787, 1450230817192638, 1477300417647027, 1679076913552130, 1741392144266605, 1748558389566736, 1804073397411251, 1806478940387807, 1826207388952200, 1978578699476501, 2109194323053736, 2132828837440937, 2203628420183718, 2218374939029260, 28442302908781499, 28687982490901060, 2927731384257378, 29280792584866878, 4707340882819404, 947785178185820. Ad Library link pattern: https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?id=.

AdSpy shows none of it. Every Ebb query returned 0 ads (see absences); AdSpy has not indexed ads that started 2026-10-30 to 11-04, which also means AdSpy's 30-day window undercounts every brand's newest ads.

2. Brands ranked by live evidence

Sorted by summed engagement of the brand's live AdSpy ads (raw/adspy/now-<domain>.json). Kitsch was re-pulled with --n 120 (now120-mykitsch.com.json) because the 40-ad pull hit its cap; the 10-07 Kitsch baseline was capped at 40, so its delta in ad count is a floor. Ad Library columns: the library's own displayed result count for active ads by destination domain in the US, and the same query restricted to ads that started on or before 2026-10-06 (still active, so running 30+ days). "not reached" = queued, but the shared AdsPower research profile was held by other lanes' TikTok scrapers (one comments job had a 40-minute timeout) and the lane was stopped at 08:05 EST with these queries unrun. No Meta rate limit (1675004) was hit. Rerun the rest with ./adlib_run.sh adlib_spec3.txt (it skips finished labels), then python3 build_doc.py.

Delta vs 2026-10-06/07, in plain terms

• Kitsch grew. Ad Library active rose from about 2,700 (10-06) to about 3,800; about 1,100 of today's active ads started on or before 10-06. AdSpy live ads with 100+ engagement and proof rose from 23 (of a capped 40) to 54 (of 83). The same hero still leads: the Smoothing Air Dry Cream video (ad 1523265583179196) went from 46,777 to 46,797 and was still being seen on 10-29, with 10 ads carrying its first line. New pushes since 10-07 are outside hair formulas: the Lymphatic Contour Face Brush (30,486 and 30,278 on two re-cuts), an advent calendar, hair perfume and a Grinch collection. Only 23 of the 83 live Kitsch ads go to a hair-care formula page (air dry cream 9, welcome kits and shampoo/conditioner combos the rest).
• Eskiin cooled. AdSpy live ads 29 to 16, summed engagement 33,544 to 6,963, top live ad 7,033 to 2,582. Ad Library active about 810 to about 710, of which about 370 have run 30+ days. The one hook ("eskiin will give you your best skin & hair — guaranteed.") is on 13 ads, pointed at advertorials (/pages/adv-0010-10-reasons-wm, /pages/adv-0012-damaged-hair-skin, /pages/wm-hh) and the /pages/holiday-flip-game offer.
• Cécred and OUAI moved budget to fragrance. Cécred live ads 18 to 7; its top live ad is Temple Oud Hair Perfume (3,921); the Detangling Spray appears only as the lander of a 3-engagement promo. OUAI stayed at 8 live ads but summed engagement fell from 3,970 to 1,315; 6 of 8 are the Laurel Canyon perfume, and its Leave In Conditioner ad has 2 engagements.
• Hairbrella switched season. 5 live AdSpy ads, same as 10-07; the top two sell the winter rain hat; the kids swim cap ad is down to 144 and 44. Ad Library active about 970 (10-06) to about 810, of which about 370 have run 30+ days.
• Crown Affair woke up. 1 live ad on 10-07, 8 now (3,266 summed). It launched a Smoothing Air Dry Cream, the same product Kitsch has scaled, and runs a creator video for its Weightless Hydration Set (2,971).
• Idle in AdSpy's window: Sun Bum (2 sunscreen ads, 18 engagement), BondiBoost (1 ad, 9). Zero live ads in AdSpy: Briogeo, Evereden, Gisou.
• Olaplex rose from 11 live ads (3,955) to 13 (10,087), carried by one travel ad for N°.7 Bonding Oil (9,104, 99 days).

3. Top 5 live ads per brand

Columns: AdSpy id (AdSpy's id is the Facebook post id for FB ads and the shortcode for Instagram ads), the post link built from AdSpy's record, format, first line of the caption, engagement (likes/comments/shares), days between AdSpy's first and last sighting with the dates, relaunch count (ads in the brand's pull sharing the first line), proven flag, lander.

mykitsch.com (hair care + accessories + face tools)

langehair.com (hair tools (dryer brushes))

humbyorganics.com (hair care (shampoo bar, 50+ women))

routinecos.com (hair care (shampoo + conditioner))

justnutritive.com (hair care (gray hair shampoo, leave-in))

rouvenor.com (general store (one hair mask))

kurinuka.com (hair oil (batana))

flownbeauty.com (hair tool (GoBrush))

olaplex.com (hair care (bond repair))

eskiin.com (filtered showerhead)

cecred.com (hair care (hair perfume pushed now))

crownaffair.com (hair care (air dry cream, leave-in))

theouai.com (hair care (fragrance pushed now))

hairbrella.com (satin-lined caps)

mimihaircare.com (kids hair care)

sunbum.com (sunscreen (hair line idle))

bondiboost.com (hair care (growth))

4. Term sweep (ad text, US, seen in the last 30 days, sorted by likes, 40 each)

Relevance check: an ad was kept when it sells a hair-care product. Dropped ads are listed with the reason. The swim and ocean terms all came back empty this time; on 2026-10-07 the same query for "chlorine hair" returned 3 ads (Philip Kingsley, Pantene) and "after swim" 2 (Instant Swim). Swim season has ended in AdSpy's US window.

5. NEW winners not in the old set

The old set is the nine brands in COMPETITORS.md plus the 30 brands picked in SWIPES.md. Humby Organics, JustNutritive, Rouvenor and Marée were already SWIPES picks; they are listed here because they were never sized as competitors and now carry the strongest live hair-formula evidence after Kitsch.

Closest to Ebb by product: Routine (a clean shampoo + conditioner sold with a free travel kit; Ebb sells a Travel Kit) and Humby (clean shampoo bar sold through one long advertorial to a narrow buyer). Kitsch remains the scaled seller of the leave-in / anti-frizz door.

6. Ad Library longest-running active ads in the rows pulled

The default Ad Library order is not by age, so these are the oldest among the 10-60 rows pulled per brand, not each brand's true oldest ad.

7. Absences (exact query, result)

8. Method and exact commands

AdSpy (Kalp's session, on the MacBook through the tunnel, local adspy-profile, never logged in or out). Runner pull.py (copied in this folder) calls tools/swipe-drop/adspy_top.py once per query and moves each output into raw/; brought back to raw/adspy/ on the server. A per-run guard waits while any other session's adspy_top.py holds the same browser profile (an outthere session and an earthlyderm pull were running the same afternoon).

mac 'cd ~/Claude/offers/ebbo-ocean-club/research/market-now-20261105 && python3 pull.py ebb'        # --domain ebboceanclub.com (likes, all time) / --seen-days 30 / --advertiser "Ebb Ocean Club" / --domain ebboceanclub
mac '... python3 pull.py ebb2'      # --text "Ebb Ocean Club" / --text "Khalyla" / --lp-domain ebboceanclub.com
mac '... python3 pull.py domains mykitsch.com eskiin.com hairbrella.com cecred.com ever-eden.com theouai.com sunbum.com bondiboost.com briogeohair.com crownaffair.com gisou.com'
     # each: adspy_top.py --domain <d> --seen-days 30 --sort likes --n 40
mac '... python3 pull.py text terms.txt'
     # each term: adspy_top.py --text "<term>" --country US --seen-days 30 --sort likes --n 40
mac '... python3 pull.py domains routinecos.com humbyorganics.com justnutritive.com flownbeauty.com kurinuka.com mimihaircare.com langehair.com rouvenor.com olaplex.com'
mac '... python3 pull.py kitsch120'  # adspy_top.py --domain mykitsch.com --seen-days 30 --sort likes --n 120
mac "cat <file>" / tar back to raw/adspy/

AdSpy cost: 41 searches, 408 ads collected, about 200-250 views at the measured 1 view per 2 ads. The account counter moved from 1,180 to 1,770 views this period during the run, which includes other sessions' pulls on the same account. No 401 and no login redirect occurred.

Meta Ad Library (server, AdsPower research profile, logged out, paced by human_pace). Runner adlib_run.sh <spec> waits while another job drives the profile and retries a refused start. Specs: adlib_spec.txt (Ebb), adlib_spec2.txt, adlib_spec3.txt (brand counts).

python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "ebboceanclub.com" --status all --country US --max 120 --profile research
python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "Ebb Ocean Club" --exact --status all --country US --max 120 --profile research
python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "ebboceanclub.com" --status all --country ALL --max 120 --profile research
python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "Khalyla Kuhn" --exact --status all --country US --max 60 --profile research
python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "Instant Slip" --exact --status all --country US --max 60 --profile research
python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "<domain>" --status active --country US --max 10-60 --profile research
python3 research/adlib/adlib_graphql.py --query "<domain>" --status active --country US --max 10 --start-max 2026-10-06 --profile research

Ad Library queries run (label, displayed count, rows pulled, rate-limit code seen):

Analysis: analyze.py (shared helpers: relaunch count, proven flag, post link) and tables.py (writes raw/adspy/brand_table.md, top5.md, sweep_table.md, adlib_longrunners.md, all_brand_rows.json, brands_summary.json); build_doc.py assembles this file.

Files: raw/adspy/ (one JSON per AdSpy query with ranked rows and AdSpy's raw ad records, .empty for zero-result queries, adspy_log.txt with every command's output), raw/adlib/ (one JSONL per Ad Library query, log_<label>.txt with the displayed result count). Other folders under raw/ (tiktok, landers, reviews, ebb store captures) belong to a parallel lane working in the same directory and are not used here.